Bitcoin has entered the most historically important month for gains – November – with an average increase of 42.51% since 2013 – meaning Bitcoin could surpass $160,000 this month if history holds true.
However, one cryptocurrency analyst pointed out that several macroeconomic factors also play a role.
“I think seasonal charts are very important, but they have to be combined with a lot of other factors,” said Markus Thelen, a cryptocurrency analyst from 10x Research.
Looking ahead, there are expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further, and the US and China are working to reach a trade agreement; Both developments could be favorable for Bitcoin. However, government shutdowns and US tariffs continue to increase economic uncertainty.
Here are details of some key developments to watch in the coming weeks.
The United States and China ease trade tensions
The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday was considered a positive step towards ending trade tensions between the United States and China.
Trump described the talks with the Chinese president in South Korea as “amazing.” Part of the talks included an agreement from Trump to reduce tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on fentanyl trade, resuming purchases of US soybeans and ending restrictions on rare earth exports for a year.
Trump told reporters that he expects to reach a trade agreement with China “very soon.”
Trump's threat to impose tariffs against China has been blamed for the recent cryptocurrency collapse, which saw $19 billion liquidated over just 24 hours on October 11. The cryptocurrency market has struggled to recover since then.
However, Dennis Wilder, a Georgetown University professor and senior fellow at the China Initiative, told CBC News that the meeting was a “pause” in the trade war, but it is far from over.
The US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and ends quantitative tightening
Just days ago, Fed officials voted for another quarter-point rate cut, bringing the key lending rate down to its lowest level in three years.
The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for December 10, 2025. Data from CME's FedWatch — a tool used to gauge expectations for a rate change from the Fed — shows that traders estimate the likelihood of a rate cut at 63%.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell surprised markets on Wednesday by saying the move was “not a foregone conclusion.”
The Fed's cuts are seen as bullish for Bitcoin, as the lower cost of borrowing money has historically incentivized investors to trade riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies.
Added to this is the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to halt its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1st. QT is the process of shrinking the balance sheet of a central bank. The goal of QT is to calm an overheated economy and prevent inflation from rising too quickly.
The opposite of this, quantitative easing, which involves central banks pumping more cash into the economy, is seen as beneficial for cryptocurrencies, as some of that money flows into alternative assets.
The US government shutdown extends
The US government shutdown is set to enter its fifth week soon, approaching the longest in US history, as US Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over the government spending plan.
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On Thursday, Trump called on Republicans to abolish the “Senate filibuster” rule, which allows a small group of senators to block majority action, which he blames for the government shutdown.
“The choice is clear – start with the nuclear option, get rid of the filibuster and make America great again!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The end of the lockout is seen as a necessary step for the SEC to give the final green light to several cryptocurrency ETFs, along with significant developments in the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill, also known as the Clarity Act.
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