Bitcoin (BTC) is set to have a “parabolic” reaction as the classic volatility index hits all-time lows.

Key points:

• Bitcoin’s Bollinger BandWidth offers hope for a 2023-style BTC price rally until the end of the year.

• BandWidth avoided the “red” event despite the recent decline in BTC prices.

• Traders are demanding more evidence of a durable market recovery.

Bitcoin Bollinger BandWidth sets up a ‘parabolic leg’

In Series X on Wednesday, macro strategist Gert van Lagen presented a key signal from Bitcoin’s Bollinger BandWidth.

Bollinger BandWidth measures the percentage difference between the upper and lower Bollinger bands, which in itself acts as a leading indicator of BTC price volatility.

On monthly time frames, this divergence has never been smaller, according to data from sources including Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

History shows that bandwidth rarely drops below 100 on its scale, but every time it does, BTC price reacts sharply.

“Historically, every time this happens, Bitcoin follows a straight parabolic leg higher,” Van Lagen commented.

“No red light flashed in the previous months…”

The accompanying chart shows previous examples of such an equivalent result. The previous “green” signal came at the beginning of November 2023, after which the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar doubled in four months.

Continuing, Van Lagen pointed to his future forecast for the Bitcoin price, which includes one final push to new highs before the next Bitcoin bear market begins.

“This setup is identical to GOOGL before the last wave, right before the 2008 financial crisis. A series of lower highs on the Bollinger Bandwidth, which were broken to fuel subsequent bearish HTF swings,” he wrote.

Is it too early to celebrate?

Bitcoin traders remain unconvinced by the market’s strength this week amid initial signs of recovery.

Related to: Bitcoin’s ‘Most Reliable’ RSI Variable Reaches Bear Market Bottom Zone at $87K

$ Bitcoin 1 watt

It is still just a breakdown and retest scenario until proven otherwise. Still continuing to plan.

Volume is low, MACD/RSI needed to reset at 1D and below, + we were down 45K without any bounce.

I won’t talk out loud about the bottom quite yet. https://t.co/VW0b0VF8IF pic.twitter.com/Rerl1KTvOW

– Roman (@Roman_Trading) December 2, 2025

On Wednesday, BTC/USD reached its highest levels in more than two weeks, targeting $94,000 on rumors of a pro-crypto US Federal Reserve Chairman.

“The price has now made a higher high and a higher low, so technically the market structure is back to the upside in this time frame,” admitted trader Daan Crypto Trades in an X post.

“But for this to hold true, I want to see it continue above the current price zone.”

As Cointelegraph reported, the current spot price area holds great significance for the 2025 annual candle, with BTC/USD starting the year at $93,500.

“Bitcoin has a full month to perform a 2% rally to end the month above the four-year cycle level ~$93,500 and close the year as a green candle,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted on Tuesday.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.