Bitcoin has been the undisputed dominant force in the financial world. In a rapid change in financial appeal, the focus has shifted from decentralized digital assets to the US government treasury. As liquidity becomes the critical force behind every major market movement, the Treasury General Account (TGA) has emerged as the real engine capable of driving risky assets.
Why Bitcoin Cycles Matter Less When Fed Monetary Levels Change
The most important chart for 2026 is not Bitcoin, but the current account of the US Treasury. Cryptocurrency analyst Kyle Chase male The reason for the cessation of cryptocurrencies is the availability of government liquidity. Meanwhile, the TGA just rose to $1 trillion, creating a massive liquidity vacuum in the cycle. When the Treasury replenishes its funds, it drains dollars from the broader financial system.
However, to avoid a recession in 2026,… government The account must be drained again. Draining the TGA would mean putting between $150 billion and $200 billion back into the banking system. In addition, quantitative tightening (QT) has officially stopped, meaning the government has finished draining liquidity, and asset prices are on track. Liquidity.
TheonePix Analyst open The third rate cut for 2025 has been issued, bringing the target range to its lowest level in nearly three years. The Fed also announced a new liquidity injection of about $40 billion per month into Treasury bond purchases. this policy The pivot occurs immediately after BTC rebounds from a 35% correction, the deepest pullback BTC has seen so far this cycle.
Meanwhile, more conservative trillion-dollar asset managers, such as Vanguard and Charles Schwab, are paying encryption Products for tens of millions of first-time users. This is not the time to be bearish, but to buy the dips aggressively.
Weekly support continues as Bitcoin looks for a relative trend reversal
Full-time cryptocurrency trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, Highlight Bitcoin is currently trading only about 18% above its 2021 highs compared to the Nasdaq. Currently, the BTC/NASDAQ ratio is testing the weekly Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a level that is providing support. Initially, Bitcoin saw a clear breakout in this ratio during 2024 and early 2025, but since then, the momentum has stalled as stocks continue to rise, fueled by the rise in AI technology.
According to the expert, the momentum of technology stocks is starting to slow, at least temporarily, and we will be watching whether this ratio moves back in favor of BTC again for a while. Because of the rotation signalBTC is already showing signs that the index, like the Russell 2000 (small caps), is starting to outperform, as technology stocks cool off a bit.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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