Matt Hogan, CTO at Bitwise, says crypto’s near-term trajectory is being pulled by two very different macro forces: a gold breakout that signals a deeper institutional trust issue, and a suddenly uncertain path to the Clarity Act that could determine whether the current pro-crypto regulatory status becomes permanent US law.
In a January 26 memo titled “Gold Rising, Clarity in Suspense,” Hogan depicted the moment as split-screen. On the one hand, there is a traditional buffer to repricing value to sharply higher levels. On the other hand, there is a legislative process that, if halted, could shift cryptocurrencies from a market based on expectations to a proving ground based on adoption.
Gold above $5,000, cryptocurrencies?
Hogan described gold’s move as “amazing.” After rising 65% in 2025, gold will rise another 16% in 2026 and is now trading at more than $5,000, he wrote, adding that it is “very strange” to consider that gold has “gained half its value (in dollar terms) in the past 20 months.”
For Hogan, price action is less about commodity cycles and more about confidence. “I think the high price of gold says something profound about the world,” he wrote. “First, he says, years of money printing, debt, and cheapening are catching up with fiat currencies. Second, it shows that people no longer want to keep all their wealth in a form dependent on the good graces of others.”
This second point is detailed for cryptocurrencies. Hogan claimed that the past few years have accelerated a global shift in how institutions think about sovereign risk and custody, tracing the trend back to 2022 when the US seized Russian Treasury assets following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He said central banks “doubled their annual purchases of gold” after that event, effectively leading to the decision that some reserves should remain beyond the reach of any single power.
He pointed to recent examples as evidence of the breadth of this trend: German economists publicly urging the government to withdraw gold stored at the New York Fed and return it to Germany, and a warning from a Norwegian government committee that its sovereign wealth fund may be “vulnerable to higher taxes, regulatory intervention and even confiscation” in today’s geopolitical climate. “There is a global collapse in trust among institutions, and it is accelerating,” Hogan wrote.
The crypto company’s proposition, in this context, is straightforward: systems designed to reduce reliance on central intermediaries. “To own bitcoin or other crypto assets, you don’t have to trust anyone,” he wrote, adding that “no single person can change the rules of how platforms like Ethereum and Solana work.” Hogan acknowledged that the usual industry vocabulary — such as self-detention, resistance to oversight, and lack of trust — can seem abstract, but he said it is starting to sound more real in a world of increasing uncertainty about who ultimately controls assets and rules.
The law of clarity swayed
Hogan’s second focus was the Clarity Act, which he described as critical because it would “enhance the current pro-crypto regulatory environment into law.” Without it, he said, a future administration could reverse course — and explained the risks by asking readers to “portray Senator Elizabeth Warren as the next chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission.”
He wrote earlier this month that prediction markets were confident: Polymarket had nearly 80% pass odds in early January. After recent setbacks, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong calling the current version “unworkable,” Hogan said those odds have dropped to roughly 50%.
If the Clarity project fails, Hogan expects to reset how markets price the sector for several years. “If the bill fails, I believe cryptocurrencies will enter a ‘show me’ period,” he wrote. “This means we will have three years to make cryptocurrencies indispensable in the daily lives of ordinary Americans and the traditional financial industry. If it succeeds, regulation will take care of itself. If it fails, there could be real challenges.”
He compared the dynamic to technologies that forced legal easing after it became inevitable, citing Uber and Airbnb operating “on the edge of regulation” until usage made the old framework unsustainable. In the case of cryptocurrencies, the proof would be an unambiguous penetration into mainstream bars — Hogan’s examples being Americans “using stablecoins and trading token stocks.” If that happens, he said, the supporting legislation becomes politically flexible regardless of who has power. If this does not happen, the shift in Washington could turn into a “major setback.”
Hogan linked the legislative outcome directly to market structure. If the industry succeeds in backing a version of Clarity, investors are expected to treat the growth of stablecoins and tokens as virtually guaranteed — and to price that future quickly. If Clarity fails, the market may demand real-world adoption before valuations reward, otherwise cryptocurrencies will be “built on a regulatory foundation of sand.”
At the time of publication, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies was $2.94 trillion.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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