Six Polymarket traders pocketed nearly $1 million after accurately betting that the US would strike Iran before the end of February, raising suspicions of insider trading.

All six wallets were created in February and put almost all of their activity on contracts that predict the timing of a possible US attack, Bloomberg reported, citing data shared by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. In many cases, shares were purchased just hours before the explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts being acquired for around $0.10, according to the report.

The timing caught the attention of onchain investigators, who said the pattern resembled behavior previously associated with suspected insider activity in prediction markets.

“In situations involving war or conflict, information can spread within a wider circle before it becomes public,” said Nicola Vaimann, CEO of Bubblemaps. “Combined with the fact that Polymarket generally only requires a wallet to trade, allowing for a high level of anonymity, this can create incentives for knowledgeable participants to act early,” he added.

Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment, but did not receive a response as of publication

Related to: Polymarket user earns $400k betting on ZachXBT realization

Polymarket Iran bets on the strike attract $529 million in volume

During the latest escalation, more than $529 million flowed into strike-related contracts at Polymarket. The designated February 28 contract alone attracted nearly $90 million in trading volume, making it the most popular strike date among traders. The January 31 scenario was followed by approximately $42 million.

Notably, one reported account had previously lost money based on an earlier prediction before placing a larger bet that later returned more than $170,000, suggesting that the trades themselves are not proven wrong. Washington has also publicly warned for weeks of possible military action, attracting speculators to the platform.

There have been more cases of insider trading allegations at Polymarket. This week, a small group of cryptocurrency wallets earned more than $1.2 million betting on a contract tied to an onchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom, shortly before investigator ZachXBT published allegations that an Axiom employee and his associates had engaged in insider trading since early 2025.

Last month, the Polymarket account made about $400,000 from a well-timed bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The wallet had set aside nearly $32,000 when Maduro was removed shortly before the news broke, raising concerns about insider trading.

Related to: Polymarket users favor Meteora in bets on removing the ZachXBT crypto

US regulator moves to ban insider trading in prediction markets

As Cointelegraph reported, US Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing legislation called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to limit insider trading on prediction platforms. The proposal would prevent elected officials, political appointees, and executive branch employees from trading contracts tied to government policy or political outcomes when they have nonpublic information.