The Bitcoin market is still in a bearish phase that has now lasted six months. During this time, the leading cryptocurrency hit a local low of $60,000, while the cycle peak and current all-time high remained at $126,000. It is worth noting that prominent analyst Burak Kesmeci provided insights, highlighting the key price levels that define the current market setup.
Bitcoin is in correction range but downside risks remain – details
In a QuickTake post dated March 27, Kesmeci noted that current price levels indicate that Bitcoin is 53% below its all-time high. The analyst explains that although this margin indicates a heavy loss, it is also in line with the expected correction range of 40%-70%. However, the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 bear markets saw drawdowns of 84% and 77% respectively, suggesting that a potential crash is still present in this current cycle.
Meanwhile, fundamental on-chain cost data from key market participants provides further insight into the current state of Bitcoin. As of March 24, 2026, new whales, defined as those holding coins less than 155 days old, cost approximately $82,800. This level now acts as a major area of resistance, as it lies well above the current market price of $66,000, and indicates that a large group of new institutional buyers remain underwater, limiting the upward momentum as prices approach this area.
On the other hand, there are stronger support levels as Binance user deposit addresses maintain a cost basis of around $58,900, while the wallets of whales associated with mining are slightly lower at $55,900.
To further support this structure, the Short Term Holder (STH) cost basemap as of March 26 highlights a consistent pattern of general resistance. The total price realized for the STH was set at $86,900, with sub-sets such as the 1M-3M set at $82,600 and the 3M-6M set at $96,000. Additionally, the 365-day simple moving average is $97,700. Together, these levels form a dense resistance block that Bitcoin must overcome to signal any real trend reversal.
In contrast, the only nearby resistance currently in place is the STH 1W-1M cost basis at $70,100, which remains above the current price level. On the lower end, the price achieved at $54,300 continues to act as a macro support floor, representing a critical threshold for long-term market structure.
Bitcoin price overview
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $66,012 on the daily chart, reflecting a loss of 4.21%. Meanwhile, trading volume rose by 17.29% to $45.68 billion. According to Kesmeci’s analysis, every major set of costs lies ahead. Bitcoin must successfully cross all of these levels to confirm the change in market trend. Therefore, until $86,900 is decisively recovered, there will likely be no signs of a bullish reversal or new higher price levels to consider.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
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