One economist suggests that the price of Bitcoin could recover by as much as 21% over the next seven days if historical trends from October continue.
“Declines of more than 5% in October are extremely rare. This has happened only four times in the past 10 years,” economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Friday.
He said these cases occurred in October 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021. In the week following each decline, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019. The only exception was 2021, when the cryptocurrency asset fell another 3%.
October is often called “Uptober” due to its historically strong returns.
Since 2013, October has been the second-best-performing month for Bitcoin on average, generating an average return of 20.10%, behind only November, which delivered an average gain of 46.02%, according to data from CoinGlass.
If history repeats, Bitcoin could rise to $124,000
Peterson's comments came after Bitcoin fell to $102,000 on Friday after US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on China.
At press time, bitcoin has already recovered slightly to $112,468, after hitting a new all-time high of $125,100 on Monday, according to CoinMarketCap.
If history repeats and Bitcoin reverses its strongest rebound in October — a 21% rally in 2019 — a similar move from Friday's low of $102,000 would put the cryptocurrency below its all-time high, around $124,000, within a week.
Bitcoin users confirm that it is still early in October
Many Bitcoin advocates remain confident that the uptrend will continue.
In an X post on Friday, Jan3 founder Samson Mow said: “There are still 21 days left in Uptober.” “This is the bottom of the current cycle,” said Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital.
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“The biggest liquidation collapse in history. Covid-19 was the bottom of the previous cycle,” he said.
Some analysts took a long-term view. Bitcoin Libertarian said: “In a few years, Bitcoin will drop from $1 million to $0.8 million in a few hours, and we will all be talking about a new record number of liquidations.”
“Let history repeat,” he said.
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