It’s been a bumpy few weeks for FTSE 100 index But baby (LSE: BP) The share price is enjoying a strong rally. The same force is driving both: the war in Iran.

On February 27, the day before the conflict began, BP shares closed at 487 pence. Today, they are up 17.5% at 572p. They had done so well before that, that investors decided that after years of boardroom confusion, BP had to get its act together at some point. Also, stocks were cheap, and returns were high. BP shares are up 68% over 12 months. Can this continue?

It fell last week, after Donald Trump announced a 14-day ceasefire. Despite the abuses, it is fairly resilient today. tomorrow? who knows. Oil price movements are impossible to predict at the best of times, and now appears to be one of the worst times.

Volatile stocks in the FTSE 100 index

When markets are optimistic about a resolution on Iran, the FTSE 100 rises and the BP falls. When pessimism comes, the opposite happens.

Brent crude closed February at $65. On April 6, it crossed $109. It has since fallen to $95 per barrel. Where he goes next is anyone’s guess. JP Morgan It warned it could reach $120 if the Strait of Hormuz remains a no-go zone over the summer.

BP can break even with the oil price at about $30 or $40 a barrel. It looks set to make some big profits either way, although the markets have already priced it in somewhat. There are political risks as well. Pressure could grow for a tougher windfall tax, as oil companies appear to be making money while voters suffer. Although this may not be the time to punish energy suppliers.

There is talk of the biggest oil supply shock in history, with up to a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies threatened. However, in practice, it may not be as bad as it was in the early 1970s. The global economy is less dependent on oil, due to increased efficiency and the rise of renewable energy sources. The United States is also a much larger producer thanks to shale oil.

It is a long term investment

We have seen after the Ukraine energy shock of 2022 that markets are able to adapt and find new sources of supply. This could happen here. This could represent a long-term blow to major oil companies. I could name six other risks, in both directions. So, what can investors actually do?

in Motley FoolWe recommend investing for the long term, which involves ignoring short-term political – or geopolitical – noise. It’s not easy, especially today.

With that in mind, I think BP stock is worth considering, because fossil fuels remain essential to the global economy, even as the pace of the energy transition accelerates. The Middle East crisis confirmed this. Without oil, many motorists cannot drive, jet planes cannot fly, and people may starve in some countries, as oil is necessary for fertilizers and raw materials as well. Also pharmaceuticals.

Investors who want exposure today should consider drip money into BP, while taking advantage of any further declines in price. But don’t assume that today’s rally will continue. The next few weeks will be bumpy for BP and everyone.