I started investing again on 1986/87, and my first shares were bought shortly after reaching 18 years. Thus, I have been buying and owning companies for nearly 40 years. During those contracts, I saw four incidents in the main stock market.

Market collapse

The first shares was on October 19, 1987, known as the Black Monday. On that day, and Dow Jon's industrial average The index collapsed by 22.6 %, which is the largest percentage per day ever. despite FTSE 100 It drowned that month, already closed 2 % in 1987.

The collapse of the second stock market was the explosion of the DotCom bubble on 2000/03. From the end of 1999 to the end of 2002, Footsie lost 43.1 % of its value, and finally graduated in March 2003. “FTSE 3,287: It's time to buy”Call perfectly below the market.)

The third match of the market has become the global financial crisis of 2007/2009. With the collapse of American homes and American stocks fell, the global FTSE repercussions were 31.3 % in 2008.

My fourth big participation segment came in 2020, when Covid-19 infection doubled. With stock markets decreased in the United States and the United Kingdom by 35 % of the previous high levels, my wife and I have bought significantly cheap shares in the spring of 2020. The subsequent returns were great.

Here comes the accident?

In my experience, stock market accidents usually occur when stock prices rise, they are separated from reality. Now, the United States S & P 500 The index is expensive in almost every evaluation scale. However, stock prices continue to rise, and have pushed up due to huge flows of money, especially in low -cost indicators and high -tech shares.

Will the market be disrupted in the last quarter of 2025? I admit the possibility, especially given that October was a terrible month for stock markets, especially in the big accident in 1929 (and in 1987). But given the huge flows in the huge American stocks, I do not see a 20 % correction in the remainder of 2025. But 2026 are different …

Hidden value?

Although I see the US stock market in exaggerated, I do not throw American shares from my family portfolio. Instead, I am looking for a hidden value in S&P 500. One candidate stands out Target corp (NYSE: TGT).

Target is one of the largest retailers in America for general goods, as it is sold through nearly 2000 large stores in the box and online. However, while the largest supermarkets flourished, the sales of the target and the margins suffer.

While writing, the target price is $ 88.01, and this work is estimated at $ 40.4 billion. At its highest level in 52 weeks, the share price reached $ 161.50 on October 15, 2024, before it decreased to $ 86.30 on September 22, 2025. it decreased by 42.2 % over a year and 44.7 % over the course of five years (except for cash dividends).

After this prices, the target shares are trading 10.4 times of the backward profits, achieving a profit return of about 9.7 %. Also, profit distributions return increased to 5.1 % per year-a level rarely seen among large American stocks.

For me, these basics indicate that this stock is deep in the deals deals area. Then again, who can say when will the quarterly sales stop slipping – and when will revenues, margins and profits return to historical standards? However, if my family's portfolio does not already have these shares, I would like to buy it – perhaps during the collapse of the next stock market!